Volatility in the U.S. stock market amidst upcoming elections: analysis and forecasts
- byAdmin
- 2024-08-04
The U.S. stock market is facing high volatility due to the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming elections. According to recent analytical reports, the current political tension and competition between candidates could significantly impact market trends in the coming months.
Leading analysts emphasize that political instability related to the elections is a key factor contributing to market volatility. It is expected that the stock market will remain susceptible to fluctuations until the political landscape becomes clearer.
At present, political forecasts show equal chances for both parties. The Democrats, focusing on supporting Vice President Kamala Harris, present her as a younger and more dynamic candidate compared to incumbent President Joe Biden. Despite this support, the elections remain highly competitive.
Analysts report that their quantitative models still favor the Democrats in the presidential race, but the Republicans hold a slight advantage in the Senate. This creates a complex political picture, with potential scenarios where neither side gains full control.
According to analysts, the market may respond favorably to a deadlock scenario where neither side gains full control, as it would help maintain the status quo and reduce political uncertainty. In contrast, a one-party sweep, particularly by the Republicans, could lead to significant market risks associated with potential structural changes.
Moreover, the current challenges facing Kamala Harris, such as rising inflation, a weakening labor market, and increasing global instability, especially in the Middle East, could negatively impact her prospects. These factors are already putting pressure on the stock market, reducing investor confidence and leading to weakened stocks in companies, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors.
The situation is further exacerbated by global factors. Tensions in international politics, especially in the Middle East, add additional pressure to the global market. Energy crises and geopolitical instability create further risks, contributing to increased market volatility.