In recent weeks, there has been a noticeable increase in volatility in global financial markets, linked to significant events in the Middle East and global economic changes. Research from analytical agencies such as BCA Research forecasts further intensification of market instability in the coming months, driven by risks associated with oil and political events.

According to recent reports from BCA Research, the probability of a severe oil supply shock has risen to 37%. This is due to rising tensions in the Middle East and instability in the global economy. The conflict between Israel and the Hezbollah group has escalated to a new level following recent airstrikes, which have heightened the conflict. The assassination of a high-profile Hamas leader in Tehran and subsequent threats of retaliation from Iran add additional tension.

Investors anticipate a short-term rise in oil prices due to potential supply disruptions, which could, in turn, increase inflationary pressures. Analysts advise maintaining an overweight position in energy stocks, particularly in North and South America, where oil producers may be less vulnerable compared to their counterparts in the Middle East.

Additionally, global political instability combined with economic factors such as slowing growth in the U.S., lack of significant economic stimulus in China, and the threat of recession in Europe, exacerbates risks for financial markets. Volatility in the oil market is expected to persist until measures are taken by key players such as Iran and Hezbollah and the full extent of the damage from current conflicts is assessed.

Problems in the oil markets may also be worsened by the upcoming U.S. elections. British strategists highlight that the election outcome could significantly impact the oil market. Regardless of the election result, the actions of the sitting president may include measures to bolster his political legacy, potentially affecting global oil policy. Specifically, increased sanctions against Iran and other political measures could further destabilize the market.

The influence of sanctions and economic restrictions, particularly from Russia, must also be considered. Reduced production and export volumes of energy resources from Russia continue to pressure the global oil market, contributing to rising prices and inflation. These factors could further complicate the economic situation in countries dependent on energy imports.